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Everyone seems to feel like UCLA is our only shot at winning another game this year. I wonder why that is. Has anyone noticed that UW just lost to them following a bye week and that the Dogs are about to lose hope for a bowl after this weekend? Is it because we are playing at Husky Stadium and most feel that is a disadvantage too big to overcome?
We are currently 18 point dogs to UCLA at home. I would expect the spread for Apple Cup to sit around 21 points given the home/away edge. The simple fact is that the UCLA team we play this weekend will be very similar to UW. UCLA will have a slightly better defense than UW and UW will have a slightly better offense.
The match-up with UW actually fits us better anyways. We stand a much better chance at an upset when our offense can put together a few first downs each drive. The Cougs have a chance at doing just that against UW's decidedly below average defense. Any sort of sustained drives will keep the defense off the field which is critical given our depth issues and the system we are employing on defense. We are an extreme version of bend but don't break EVERY time. We allow yardage in huge chunks with the hope that some combination of a turnover or penalty or offensive misfire will stop the drive. That means the defense is out on the field for long periods of time and it gets worse when the offense goes three and out. Our offense has a better chance at putting together a few drives against UW then it does against UCLA.
UW's offense is not stellar and can be error prone at times. Polk and Locker are very good this year. They just aren't going to be anything that is better than what we've already seen many times this year. They will clearly put up points and the magic number is probably 30. If they hit that mark then we are probably done. Our offense just isn't capable of a four score game. But if they stay in the 21-28 range then we should be close and in position to steal a win if we can pick up some big turnovers.
At any rate, this weekend should be competitive and the last three weeks of the season should really be the best gauge of how much we've improved this season. We are playing the two teams directly above us in the standings and we get the next two games at home late in the season. Sagarin says that we have played the second toughest schedule in the country this season. Well, the worst part is over by a long stretch. Now we don't leave the State for the rest of the season and we play two of the weakest teams we've seen since SMU. I'm not saying we sweep but picking up a W in any of the three games coming up will not be an epic upset. It would simply be a big upset that you see in college football every week. You've got to figure that WSU is in line for some good karmic balance just one more time this season, right…..right??
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