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The Pac-10 puts itself at a major competitive disadvantage by doing full round-robin scheduling. All major conferences other than the Pac-10 play 8 league games rather than 9. That enables them to play 4 out of conference games. The strategy is to play two guaranteed wins, one middle of the road school, and one stretch game for most schools. For the power schools in the other conferences you generally play 3 body bag games and 1 power school. Think about that. You play 3 body bag games and you're halfway to a bowl game before even playing a conference game.
Here's how WSU should structure next season's schedule:
In the absence of a four game non-conference schedule, we need to schedule two guaranteed non-conference wins. That guarantees us at least two wins before Pac-10 season which sets up bowl eligibility for us. Obviously, we'd only need to go 4-5 in the conference to go to a bowl game. If we win our third non-conference game we clearly only need to go 3-6 in the Pac-10. It might seem a little weak but that’s the system today and we need to take advantage of the flaws. A bowl game would be a crucial momentum builder at this juncture for the program. We are fighting for a stadium upgrade and building a program from the ground up. Even a lower level bowl game would help with both immensely. The object of the game right now is to stay in the conversation with press and recruits as long as possible during each season.
Who's doing it right this year?
Want an example of what we should be doing? Indiana is 4-4 this season. They're a terrible football team and yet they are only 2 wins away from going to a bowl game. Their non-conference wins are Eastern Kentucky, Western Michigan, and Akron. They barely lost last weekend to a pretty awful Northwestern team. If they had won that game they would have been 1 victory away from a bowl with 4 games to play. That's the way you want to play the system if you are a growing team like WSU.
What would bowl eligibility mean? That would equate to 15 extra practices for our players in December. Think that would help Jeff Tuel and all of our redshirts? Add in the continued TV exposure for recruiting and a sunny weather trip for alumni over the holidays and even a game like the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego becomes huge for a program.
Who is hurt the most with Pac-10 round robin scheduling?
The schools hurt the most with the round robin are the middle class schools in the Pac-10. Arizona State scheduled properly (wins over Idaho State and Louisiana-Monroe) and they are 4-3 with only 2 wins needed to get to bowl eligibility. Washington scheduled poorly (losses to LSU and Notre Dame) and they are 3-5 and likely out of luck for a bowl by a single game. Think UW would like to have another W against San Jose State this season rather than LSU? I'm pretty sure Sarkheisel would love to have the extra practice and the propaganda ammunition of a bowl game to spread to recruits. The point is that the margin for error with the middle class schools moves to virtually zero with only 3 non-conference games if you don't schedule at least 2 weak teams. A blown coverage in just a single game can doom your entire season.
Ok, so here is the WSU formula for success next year. This is the schedule that gives us the best balance of gate revenue, rest for our players, and maximized likelihood of six wins. Optimized scheduling for next season please!
Game 1: Play at Ok State September 4th in Stillwater. This is the return game from a year ago. Play them first and get it out of the way. They will be rebuilding next year so it's not a guaranteed blowout.
Game 2: Montana State, Weber State, or Idaho State. Schedule an FCS school for a home game on 9/11. Game two is a return home and a guaranteed win. It's week two so you avoid the Labor Day exodus in Pullman and have students and recent grads excited to attend that first home game of the year.
Game 3: Play at San Jose State or New Mexico State. Buyout SMU and schedule a WAC cellar-dweller for an away game on 9/18. Game 3 gets us ramped up to the Pac-10 season with an "easy" road game. Now we are likely 2-1 and road tested with two games away from Pullman.
Games 4,5,6: USC, @UCLA, Oregon. We start the conference next season with 2 out of 3 at home.
Bye: Keep the bye scheduled for 10/16 currently. Rest for the team after six games. That's perfect.
Games 7,8,9: @Stanford, @Arizona State, Cal. Another three week stretch of Pac-10 games. 2 of 3 on the road this time.
Game 10: Move the Oregon State game and schedule Arizona at home. Great time to bring the team from Tucson into Pullman. Temperatures at game time should be around 45 degrees. Just for kicks make it a night game and see how they handle the freezing temperatures.
Game 11: Apple Cup before Thanksgiving in Pullman on 11/20.
Game 12: Oregon State at Qwest Field on December 4th. Make this a four-year deal and cut a national television or west coast television deal with Fox Sports. Split tickets 50/50 between the two schools and create a regional rivalry game played on a neutral site. Projected payout for each team for the four years would be $3 million dollars. That's half of what was reportedly offered to move Apple Cup to Qwest.
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