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Need a little jolt of optimism? |
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Written by Westward
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Friday, 16 October 2009 19:52 |
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Over the past four games we are 3-1 against the spread. That means three out of the past four games we've performed better than the guys in Vegas thought we would do against our opponent.
We have reduced the average points we give up by 8 points from last year. No doubt the biggest contributor has been our ability to force turnovers this season. We've gone from allowing 43 points a game to 35 points a game. That's more or less going from historically awful to just bad but it's improvement nonetheless. When you consider the amount of youth we are playing on defense then there is real reason to be excited. What's fun is to consider how we might look next season if we can shave another touchdown off of our points allowed. That would move us to 28 points a game and that would put us squarely in the realm of an average defense!
Now the offense is a little less rosy than what we are seeing from the defense. We have only improved by two points from last year. That is decidedly less exciting when you consider that two of our touchdowns have been defensive touchdowns bringing us even closer to last year's average. However, the offensive line has been absolutely decimated so a more accurate gauge of the offense will come after the bye. Nevertheless, given the true freshmen that we are playing on offense it isn't unreasonable to think we could improve by a field goal next year. That would bump us to a 17 point per game average.
Combined we would average losing by a 28-17 margin. That sort of deficit probably moves us into the 4 win category next season. It would be reasonable to dream about a bowl game at that point but things would have to break incredibly well for us. If you extrapolate to 2011 we are finally defense and offense neutral! That means right around a .500 record and a bowl game. It's not unreasonable to look at that sort of improvement track given our youth and the class we are pulling in this season. If you want to really think about the future then think about 2012. Imagine opening up the remodeled portion of Martin Stadium with Jeff Tuel as a Senior QB. It's an even year so we get Oregon, Cal, SC, and UW at home. All the pieces are there for that type of dream season where we grab ten wins and serve notice that we are back.
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